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\n An Invested Project Stakeholder’s guide to understanding the criticality of Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA’s) within Major to Mega Projects<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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Risk is the manner in which uncertainty, fortune and circumstance impact on the completion of a project’s stated objectives. It is thus within all invested project stakeholders’ best interests to ensure that sufficient analysis & planning exists for mitigating their most material risk exposures. Building on this investor need, this paper attempts to explain in an abbreviated but pragmatic manner why QRA’s are so critical to determining long term project outcomes.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n How Brisbane 2032 could be the case example which redefines the Olympics reputation for Mega-Project waste and overspend?<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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In any normal year, Australians would almost certainly rejoice at the news of being awarded an Olympics, but after 2 years of Covid restrictions followed by a further 2 years of Global Polycrisis, it could now potentially be a different story. The past 4 years have been particularly hard and the average Australian may simply not be in the mood to support Billions of Taxpayer Dollars being spent on a global sporting event. Especially when considering that the Nation is collectively experiencing a mass livability crisis fueled by rampant inflation, record debt, a housing shortage, mass economic uncertainty and with no obvious relief in sight. So, what will it take for Australian to embrace the Olympics as an opportunity to advance the Nation?<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n How Coronavirus may be the stress test which finally unmasks the myths, vulnerabilities and follies of the global risk management discipline<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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The 2020 Coronavirus pandemic is now being called the most significant, global threat since World War II.<\/p>\n

Within a year more than 10,000,000 cases had been reported in over 180 countries, resulting in over 1,000,000 deaths and with no immediate end in sight. The pandemic has since led to massive socio-economic disruption, including widespread societal fear, supply shortages and economic instability. There is no denying that Coronavirus (Covid19) has become the ultimate stress test for our global community. How we respond to this pandemic will ultimately determine our species’ future – yes, our chosen responses are that big a deal.<\/p>\n

Coronavirus thus may very well be the high profile case trial that brings long over due credibility to the global risk management discipline, or equally this could be the load test that completely obliterates the myth of it all.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Risk 4.0 – how the Fourth Industrial Revolution is expected to shape the future of Risk Management (Video)<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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The following presentation was given to the Australasian Chapter of the Risk & Insurance Management Society (RIMS) in September 2019. It outlines an academic view of how the Fourth Industrial Revolution will shape the future of Risk Management. Specifically, the presentation explores the influence of Big Data, Smart Technologies and Complex Cyber Systems on our future working world, and how the risk management community will need to upskill and recapitalise so as to meet the challenges of this complex-disruptive, new working world.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n RISK 4.0 – what the risk management discipline will need to offer during the age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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The Fourth Industrial Revolution is the term introduced by the World Economic Forum to try and explain how rapidly emerging technologies are collectively re-shaping our global consciousness, our social behaviours, our preferred politics, the cities we will live in, our places of work, our management practices and even our future careers. But what does risk management need to look like in this bold new age?<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Investigating a Complex Systems Thinking approach to Project Risk Management<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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A video presentation given by Warren Black at the 2019 Engineers Australia, Risk Engineering & Project Controls Conference on some key learnings secured from his QUT PHD research, to date.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n An introduction to complexity and how it influences risk (Part 2)<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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The second Webinar video in the series given to the Engineers Australia, Risk Engineering Society members. This particular webinar explores practical methods for applying complex systems thinking and natural resilience theory to the risk management discipline.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n An introduction to complexity and how it influences risk (Part I)<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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A recorded video Webinar for Engineers Australia, Risk Engineering Society.\u00a0 Introduces the concepts of systemic complexity, chaos, resilience, disruption, emergence and systems thinking as well as their collective influences on modern day risk management.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Sleepwalking into Crisis! (Video)<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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In January 2019 the World Economic Forum released its’ Global Risk Report for the year. The report cautions that despite the increased intensity of the global risk landscape in recent years, comparatively few participating organisations have invested in the risk management infrastructure necessary to respond positively to emerging global threats. As a result, many organisations now exist in a state of self-induced vulnerability whereby they are potentially \u201csleepwalking into crisis\u201d The attached presentation was developed on the back of the World Economic Forum warning and attempts to explain why the WEF feels the world major institutions are sleepwalking into crisis. If complexity, chaos, emergence, disruption, resilience and modern risk management are of interest to you, then this video will almost certainly be of of value.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Building Resilience within Modern Organisations (Video)<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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Video Presentation to the RMIA National Conference 2018, discussing how our working world has now entered the Fourth Industrial Revolution; a period defined by perpetual disruption, in the form of continually evolving technologies, product trends, consumer behaviours, data sets and relationships. The global risk management community is now faced with a particularly ominous challenge; how to effectively control high impact, organisational risks, borne from a highly inter-connected world, experiencing ever increasing frequencies of disruption…<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Fundamentals of Risk Management for Technical Students (Video)<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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An introductory video presentation on the basics of risk management given to a 2nd year class of engineers & technologists by Warren Black of the Complexus Research Project.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Sleepwalking into crisis! – the state that exists when an organisation’s chosen risk management practices become ripe for disruption<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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This is the original thought piece published in the StrategicRisk Journal which later was turned into a roadshow presentation (Hong Kong, Singapore. Sydney) and complimenting video. The paper was written as a response to the World Economic Forum Global Risk Report (2019) which cautions that those who remain blind, apathetic or apposed to addressing the disruptive forces engulfing our working world right now, are “sleepwalking into crises”.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Building Resilience into Modern Organisations (A Complexity Science View)<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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In recent years, our working world has experienced a noticeable complexity shift as we have transitioned out of the process driven Industrial Age <\/em>into the data driven Information Age<\/em>. The rapid rise of personalised technology, big data, artificial intelligence, social networking and real time information sharing has ensured that for the first time in human history we now live in a fully integrated, immediately informed and highly responsive global community.<\/p>\n

In this dynamic new age, the potential for disruption is everywhere. Continually evolving technologies, product trends, consumer behaviours, data sets and relationships means that disruption can manifest at any time from multiple contributing sources. The global risk management community is now faced with a particularly ominous challenge; how to effectively control high impact, organisational risks, borne from a highly inter-connected world, experiencing ever increasing frequencies of change.<\/p>\n

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\n Edge of Chaos (Part II) – How complex systems theory may offer a new generation solution to complex project risk management<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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This paper builds on from Edge of Chaos (Part I) <\/em>by demonstrating\u00a0how the principles of complex systems theory might be used to establish control within a complex project. More specifically, the paper outlines how complex systems do not behave in the same manner as rational-ordered, simple state systems and for this reason project officers need to adjust their chosen control approaches to account for the specific influences and phenomena which arise from within a highly complex project system. In this regard, four guiding control principles are offered as a means to rationalise complex systems thinking into project management & control efforts.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Edge of Chaos (Part I) – how complex projects are inherently chaotic systems just waiting to unleash<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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Large scaled, capital intensive and technically intricate projects (i.e. complex projects) have an extremely poor delivery track record. In fact, a 2014 study by Bent Flyvbjerg of Oxford demonstrated that of 2,062 complex projects completed globally, more than 60% had failed to deliver on their sanctioned cost and schedule objectives. Equally alarming is that this high failure rate had not improved in at least 70 years, across all major project sectors.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately what this study confirms is that despite any perceived improvements in project planning, control and risk management practices over the years, the measurable impact on complex project success rates has been negligible. Argue it any way you want, but an industry which boasts an almost 70% failure rate over 70 years, still has room to learn. Now although there are a broad range of views as to why complex project failure rates are so high, one of the growing theoretical arguments is that conventional project planning, control and risk management methods fail to adequately account for the true nature of complexity.<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n The rise of Complex Risk Theory, and how risk management practices will need to evolve in order to survive the Fourth Industrial Revolution<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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Riddle me this –\u00a0Every few generations our tiny planet experiences a radical shift in complexity, an evolutionary “growth spurt” if you will,\u00a0whereby the surrounding environmental demands shift so quickly and so radically that the functional world becomes almost unrecognisable to the previous generation as well as their chosen methods of operation.<\/p>\n

During this time the surrounding environment becomes noticeably more complex as wave after wave of disruptive influences compound through the known world. What follows is often a painful period of readjustment as the invested stakeholders scramble to adapt and once again secure a natural rhythm to their operational existence. Those who adapt successfully, tend to survive the transition and proceed stronger for the experience, those who don\u2019t fall by the way side. As Charles Darwin observed in his seminal works on the evolution of our species; \u201cIt is not the strongest of the species\u00a0that\u00a0survive, nor the\u00a0most\u00a0intelligent, but the ones\u00a0that are most\u00a0responsive to\u00a0change.\u201d <\/em><\/p>\n

So if Charles Darwin could foresee the value of Agile approaches to controlling material risks in his time; how is it that so many of us still struggle with the concept almost 200 years later?<\/em><\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Rising Up Against the Gods; how risk management in the modern era can no longer be a rational-ordered discipline<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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Throughout history, mankind had always viewed it’s fate as being in the hands of the Gods, especially when exposed to highly uncertain activities (battle, weather, travel, disease, gambling etc.) Risk management was thus borne from mankind’s need to improve the probability of a securing a favourable outcome in an uncertain situation. That is, to bring\u00a0certainty to\u00a0a world of mass uncertainty.<\/p>\n

Yet, despite the major advancements in data collection and modelling methods over the past 21 years, the world appears no more certain nor predictable for it. Consider how economists still can\u2019t predict a global recession; traders still can’t predict a major stock crash; political analysts still can\u2019t predict the populace vote; meteorologists still can\u2019t predict the next earthquake, large organisations still become insolvent due to unforeseeable market shifts and mega-projects still fail to meet their estimated baselines 70% of the time.<\/p>\n

Isn’t time to acknowledge that risk management can\u00a0no longer be about managing uncertainty?<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Originals: How non-conformists will ultimately disrupt the world of Risk Management<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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Where is the Steve Jobs, Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg of Risk Management?<\/p>\n

Where is that unashamedly disruptive, perpetually innovative, closely followed, highly quoted, global trotting original pioneer to lead the risk management discipline into the next generation? Does one even exist?<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Does the global project industry require an “Enron”\u200b moment in order to improve its’\u200b risk management practices?<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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The world’s largest projects are now so big that they can compete with the market capitalisation of Fortune 500 companies. In Australia alone there have been at least seven projects within the past five years of over $20 billion (the entry level value for a typical Fortune 500 global company).<\/p>\n

Yet despite their abnormal size and the higher levels of investment risk which they represent, these projects are not held to the same level of mandatory governance, risk and assurance compliance as publicly listed companies half their size. How is this possible? Will it take an Enron moment before such mega projects are required to adopt risk controls\u00a0which reflect the degree of investment at risk?<\/p>\n <\/div>\n

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\n Team of Teams – lessons in complex project risk management, as learnt from the Iraq war<\/a>\n <\/div>\n
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Imagine you find yourself\u00a0accountable for managing risks in\u00a0an\u00a0environment\u00a0so complex\u00a0and\u00a0so dynamic that\u00a0the ability to\u00a0define, quantify and\u00a0control emerging risks\u00a0is severely impeded by the\u00a0speed\u00a0at which your organisation is able to share\u00a0information and make\u00a0executive\u00a0decisions. Do you;<\/p>\n

1) Put your faith in the traditional risk management methods to prevail, because these are the methods that\u00a0your\u00a0industry\u00a0has trusted for decades?<\/p>\n

2) Throw out the rule book\u00a0and write a new one better suited to address the challenges\u00a0of\u00a0a\u00a0significantly more\u00a0complex, dynamic and risky environment?<\/p>\n

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